Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera
Author-Email: madelram@ccee.ucm.es
Author-Workplace-Name: Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI) 
Author-Name: Simon Sosvilla-Rivero 
Author-Email: sosvilla@ccee.ucm.es
Author-Homepage: https://www.ucm.es/fundamentos-analisis-economico2/sosvilla-rivero,-simon
Author-Person: pso34
Author-Workplace-Name: Departamento de Economía Cuantitativa (Department of Quantitative Economics), Facultad de Ciencias 
	Económicas y Empresariales (Faculty of Economics and Business), Universidad Complutense de Madrid 
	(Complutense University of Madrid), 
Author-Workplace-Homepage: https://www.ucm.es/fundamentos-analisis-economico2
Author-Workplace-Homepage: https://www.ucm.es/icae
Title: Inflation expectations in Spain: The Spanish PwC Survey
Abstract: We examine the predictive ability, the consistency properties and the possible driving forces of inflation 
	expectations, using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. When 
	analysing the headline inflation rate, our results suggest that the PwC panel has some forecasting ability 
	for time horizons from 3 to 9, improving when it comes to predict the core inflation rate. Nevertheless, the 
	results indicate that predictions made by survey participants are neither unbiased nor efficient predictors 
	of future inflation rates, regardless of the measures of inflation used. As for the consistency properties 
	of the inflation expectations formation process, we find that panel members form stabilising expectations 
	in the case of the headline inflation rate, both in the short and in the long-run, although in the case of 
	the core inflation rate, consistency remains indeterminate. Finally, we find that inflation expectations 
	are very persistent and that they appear to incorporate the information content of some macroeconomic 
	variables (current core inflation and growth rate, the USD/EUR exchange rate, the ECB inflation target and 
	changes in the ECB official short-term interest rate).
Classification-JEL: E31, D84, C33.

Keywords: Inflation, Forecasting, Expectations, Panel data, Econometric models.
Note: The authors wish to thank PricewaterhouseCoopers in Spain for kindly providing us with the data set. Financial 
	support by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (ECO2011-23189) is also gratefully acknowledged. 
	María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera also acknowledges her grant (F.P.U.) from the Spanish Ministry of Science 
	and Innovation (Ref. AP2008-004015). Corresponding author: María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera: madelram@ccee.ucm.es.
Length: 14 pages 
Creation-Date: 2013-01 
Number: 2013-08 
X-File-Ref: http://america.sim.ucm.es/repec/ucm/ref/doicae1308.txt
File-URL: https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/18120/1/1308.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1308