Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Lan-Fen Chu
Author-Workplace-Name: National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Taiwan 
Author-Name: Michael McAleer
Author-Person: pmc90 
Author-Workplace-Name: Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam.
Author-Name: Chi-Chung Chen
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Applied Economics National Chung Hsing University Taiwan.
Title: How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?
Abstract: This paper analyzes two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in El Niños Southern 
	Oscillations (ENSO), develops the relationship between the strength of ENSO and greenhouse gas emissions, 
	which increase as the economy grows, with carbon dioxide being the major greenhouse gas, and examines 
	how these gases affect the frequency and strength of El Niño on the global economy. The empirical results 
	show that both the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(3,2)-GJR(1,1) models are suitable for modelling ENSO 
	volatility accurately, and that 1998 is a turning point, which indicates that the ENSO strength has 
	increased since 1998. Moreover, the increasing ENSO strength is due to the increase in greenhouse gas 
	emissions. The ENSO strengths for Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are predicted for the year 2030 to 
	increase from 29.62% to 81.5% if global CO2 emissions increase by 40% to 110%, respectively. This 
	indicates that we will be faced with even stronger El Nino or La Nina effects in the future if global 
	greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase unabated.
Keywords: El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO), Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Global Economy, Southern Oscillation 
	Index (SOI), Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Volatility.
Note: The second author is grateful for the financial support of the Australian Research Council, National Science 
	Council, Taiwan, and the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.
Length: 31 pages 
Creation-Date: 2012 
Revision-Date: 2012-09  
Number: 2012-20 
X-File-Ref: http://america.sim.ucm.es/repec/ucm/ref/doicae1220.txt
File-URL: https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/16597/1/1220.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1220