Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Chia-Lin Chang
Author-Email: changchialin@nchu.edu.tw
Author-Person: pch286
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Applied Economics, Department of Finance, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan
Author-Name: Philip Hans Franses
Author-Email: franses@few.eur.nl
Author-Person: pfr38 
Author-Workplace-Name: Econometrisch Instituut (Econometric Institute), Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen (Erasmus School of Economics), 
	Erasmus Universiteit
Author-Name: Michael McAleer
Author-Person: pmc90 
Author-Workplace-Name: Econometrisch Instituut (Econometric Institute), Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen (Erasmus School of Economics)
	Erasmus Universiteit, Tinbergen Instituut (Tinbergen Institute).
Title: Evaluating Individual and Mean Non-Replicable Forecasts
Abstract: Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. 
	A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a 
	forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates expert intuition, is 
	non-replicable and is typically biased. In this paper we propose a methodology to analyze the qualities 
	of individual and means of non-replicable forecasts. One part of the methodology seeks to retrieve a 
	replicable component from the non-replicable forecasts, and compares this component against the actual 
	data. A second part modifies the estimation routine due to the assumption that the difference between 
	a replicable and a non-replicable forecast involves measurement error. An empirical example to forecast 
	economic fundamentals for Taiwan shows the relevance of the methodological approach using both individuals 
	and mean forecasts.
Classification-JEL: C53, C22, E27, E37.
Keywords: Individual forecasts, mean forecasts, efficient estimation, generated regressors, replicable forecasts, 
	non-replicable forecasts, expert intuition.
Length: 31 pages 
Creation-Date: 2011 
Number: 2011-15 
X-File-Ref: http://america.sim.ucm.es/repec/ucm/ref/doicae1115.txt
File-URL: https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/12746/1/1115.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1115