Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jose Angelo Divino 
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics Catholic University of Brasilia
Author-Name: Michael McAleer
Author-Workplace-Name: Universidad Complutense de Madrid.Department of Quantitative Economics
Title: Modelling the Growth and Volatility in Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru
Abstract: Peru is a South American country that is divided into two parts by the Andes Mountains.
	The rich historical, cultural and geographic diversity has led to the inclusion of ten
	Peruvian sites on UNESCO’s World Heritage List. For the potential negative impacts of
	mass tourism on the environment, and hence on future international tourism demand, to
	be managed appropriately require modelling growth rates and volatility adequately. The
	paper models the growth rate and volatility (or the variability in the growth rate) in daily
	international tourist arrivals to Peru from 1997 to 2007. The empirical results show that
	international tourist arrivals and their growth rates are stationary, and that the estimated
	symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models all fit the data extremely well.
	Moreover, the estimates resemble those arising from financial time series data, with both
	short and long run persistence of shocks to the growth rate in international tourist
	arrivals.
Classification-JEL: C51, C53.
Keywords: Daily International Tourim; Conditional Mean Models; Conditional Volatility Models.
Length: 31 pages 
Creation-Date: 2009
Number: 2009-15 
X-File-Ref: http://america.sim.ucm.es/repec/ucm/ref/doicae0915.txt
File-URL: https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/8696/1/0915.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:0915