Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jose Angelo Divino 
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics Catholic University of Brasilia
Author-Name: Michael McAleer
Author-Workplace-Name: Universidad Complutense de Madrid.Department of Quantitative Economics
Title: Modelling Sustainable International Tourism Demand to the Brazilian Amazon
Abstract: The Amazon rainforest is one of the world’s greatest natural wonders and holds 
	great importance and significance for the world’s environmental balance. Around 60% 
	of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states 
	of the Amazon region are Amazonas (the upper Amazon) and Pará (the lower Amazon), which 
	together account for around 73% of the Brazilian Legal Amazon, and are the only states 
	that are serviced by international airports in Brazil’s North region. The purpose of this 
	paper is to model and forecast sustainable international tourism demand for the states of 
	Amazonas, Pará, and the aggregate of the two states. By sustainable tourism is meant a distinctive 
	type of tourism that has relatively low environmental and cultural impacts. Economic progress 
	brought about by illegal wood extraction and commercial agriculture has destroyed large areas 
	of the Amazon rainforest. The sustainable tourism industry has the potential to contribute to 
	the economic development of the Amazon region without destroying the rainforest. The paper presents 
	unit root tests for monthly and annual data, estimates alternative time series models and conditional 
	volatility models of the shocks to international tourist arrivals, and provides forecasts for 2006 
	and 2007.
Classification-JEL: C22, C53, Q23.
Keywords: Brazilian Amazon; International Tourism Demand; Time Series
	Modelling; Conditional Volatility Models; Forecasting.
Length: 33 pages 
Creation-Date: 2009
Number: 2009-13
X-File-Ref: http://america.sim.ucm.es/repec/ucm/ref/doicae0913.txt
File-URL: https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/8692/1/0913.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:0913